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Media Interview Scripts on China 3G Licenses, etc. by Prof. Willie W. LU, STA


Scripts of Media Telephone Interview by Technology Review
Copyright (c) 2007. Delson Group Inc.


Media: Prof. Lu, you are the one who knows everything behind the "Great Wall" of China ICT industry. So when will China issue 3G License?

LU: Many people frequently asked me this question. I already reiterated in 2000 at 3G conference in San Francisco that China would not issue 3G license before 2007 or even before 2008. To understand this question, you need to do some homework before joining our discussions.

In China, spectrum is free which means we can give you spectrum any time, but also can withdraw spectrum any time. Since 1992, it has been very normal that the operators can deploy the networks without confirmed spectrum. After the initial network optimization is completed, you can request the license to be issued. This happened for GSM, PHS and even some CDMA networks. Sometimes, the operators can run the services without a license which is OK in some cases.

For China 3G, I repeated again for over 100 times: Do not expect too much from it! Some 3G conferences in Hong Kong generated lots of noise about huge 3G business in China. But I just tell you the truth: gambling in Las Vegas is for fun, but do not bet yourself on it, otherwise you will lose your ground.



Media: Prof. Lu, do you think TD-SCDMA will be successful?

LU: Definitely, but it is hard to make money. TD-SCDMA will repeat the business way as we did for PABX from 1989 to 1996. Once TD-SCDMA is up running nationwide, there will be thousands of companies manufacturing the equipments, and push the price down to the bottom. China will take another 20 to 30 years to start respect this IP issues. Before that, everyone just wants to make quick money. In addition, the most challenges of TD-SCDMA are the network optimization and lack of research support.



Media: Prof. Lu, how do you think about the WiMax future in China?

LU: It is now a very good start point for WiMax in China with many emerging broadband wireless markets and lots of demands. But again, it depends on how you plan your business in China. If you are smart, WiMax can be like DSL booming up rapidly, otherwise it will follow the ISDN fate and move to the museum. Also, I need to point out that WiMax needs cooling-down before people can seriously think about it. Hype will not help anything except having people become crazy.



Media: How do you think about China's wireless and mobile market in the future?

LU: China is moving from a close market to an open market. Once it becomes open market, it will be much open than here in US. As you all know that US market sometimes is very close market, for example, I have a Cingular mobile phone, but I spent 15 months to request unlock of my phone, it is still completely locked and does not allow me to change Simcard when in travel. We are also not allowed to buy any prepaid GSM card freely. In contrast, China is very open in the mobile phone market and the price is going down every day. I use a China registered mobile phone in US, and the service cost is much cheaper than the one registered in US.

China's future mobile market is huge, and the market will continue open, and the most important is the infrastructure will become open as well. That's why I always tell the vendors to focus on open wireless architecture and convergence platform.
In addition, as very few people know that, in fact, China has only less than 200 million active mobile users, so the market potential is very big.



Media: As lots of companies move their R&D centers to China, do you think China will become a tech giant in near future?

LU: Chinese people are very smart, but the problem is that Chinese people never work together as a team. It will take at least another 20 years before they can realize how important to work together. I hope you get my answers.



Media: Prof. LU, what do you think about the future mobile technology?

LU: The future mobile communications will be based on service oriented mobility platform rather than standard-specific platform. Therefore, the wireless architecture will be open, and the future spectrum will be open too. Following this new direction, lots of new technologies will come out to meet this new system requirement. For more information about such new technologies, you can attend our annual mobile technology summit called World Wireless Congress in San Francisco. The website is: www.B3G.org.



Media: Thanks, Prof. Lu. I appreciate your time and support.

LU: You are welcome.



Extracted from Media Telephone Interview, Jan. 15, San Francisco.

Copyright (c) 2007. Delson Group Inc.

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